Three Horizons is a simple and intuitive framework for thinking about the future. At its simplest we can see it as describing three patterns of activity and how their interactions play out over time. The framework maps a shift from the established patterns of the first horizon to the emergence of new patterns in the third, via the transition activity of the second.
But the Three Horizons are about much more than simply stretching our thinking to embrace the short, medium and long term. The central idea of Three Horizons, and what makes it so useful, is that it draws attention to the three horizons as existing always in the present moment, and that we have evidence about the future in how people (including ourselves) are behaving now. The outcome of Three Horizons work is a map of transformational potential which enables us to act with more skill, freedom and creativity in the present, both individually and together.
The first horizon – H1 – is the dominant system at present. It represents ‘business as usual’. We rely on these systems being stable and reliable. But as the world changes, so aspects of business as usual begin to feel out of place or no longer fit for purpose. Eventually ‘business as usual’ will always be superseded by new patterns of activity.
The third horizon – H3 - emerges as the long term successor to business as usual. It grows from fringe activity in the present that introduces completely new ways of doing things but which turn out to be much better fitted to the world that is emerging than the dominant H1 systems.
The second horizon – H2 - is a pattern of transition activities and innovations, people trying things out in response to the ways in which the landscape is changing. Some of these innovations will be absorbed into the H1 systems to improve them and to prolong their life (we call them ‘H2 minus’) while some will pave the way for the emergence of the radically different H3 systems (these we call ‘H2 plus’).
We typically introduce the horizons, and think about the way the dynamic changes between them over time, in this order: H1 – H3 – H2. Because without a third horizon it is impossible to make the distinction between ‘sustaining innovation’ (H2-) and ‘transformative innovation’ (H2+).
As the framework with its three lines suggests, all three horizons are always present. Aspects of H1 will persist in any new ‘business as usual’. Aspects of H3 are always evident, if not obvious, in current discourse and argument and in all kinds of activity on the fringes of the dominant system. And H2, like a moving border between past and future, is all around us in examples of innovative alternative practice.
But the first horizon’s commitment is to survival. The dominant system can maintain its dominance even in a changing world either by crushing second and third horizon innovation, or by co-opting it to support the old system. These behaviours lead to variants on the smooth transition depicted above – notably the common ‘capture and extension’ scenario in which innovations in H2 are ‘mainstreamed’ in order to prolong the life of the existing system against the grain of a changing world.
The model offers a simple way into a conversation about:
- the dominant system and the challenges to its sustainability into the future, ie the case for change (horizon 1);
- the desirable future state, the ideal system we desire and of which we can identify elements in the present that give us encouragement and inspiration (horizon 3);
- the nature of the tensions and dilemmas between H3 vision and H1 reality, and the subtle processes of change, new ways of working, new capacities, new structures even, required to navigate the transition between them;
- developing a mature perspective that accepts the need both to address the challenges to the first horizon and nurture the seeds of the third. This is not an either/or, good/bad discussion. We need both to ‘keep the lights on’ today, and to find a way of keeping them on in the future in very different circumstances.
IFF Member Bill Sharpe’s book on Three Horizons (explore the Book section of this site) identifies three central practices that the framework encourages:
The first is to see things as patterns, to think systemically. The framework draws our attention towards systemic patterns rather than individual events or global trends. These patterns result from the activity and behaviour of those who are maintaining or creating them in the present. Each horizon in effect is developing a different quality already existing in the present, and which might come to become more prominent depending on how people choose to act - to maintain the familiar or pioneer the new.
That of course includes ourselves: we need to put ourselves in the picture. We are also actors and can choose which patterns we want to maintain and which we want to shift. The third horizon in the present is a pattern of activity pursued by people living their values, doing something that they believe in. We can stand for and embody a new pattern in the present, and/or align with the patterns emerging around us. As the writer Arundhati Roy puts it: “Another world is not only possible, she is on her way. On a quiet day, I can hear her breathing”.
Finally it is possible to convene the future by listening out for and becoming adept at managing a conversation between the ‘voices’ of the three horizons. These are three very natural perspectives on the future. The horizon one voice is the voice of the manager. It talks about maintaining the current system and usually expresses concern. The horizon two voice is the voice of the entrepreneur. It talks about trying something different and often expresses a combination of urgency and frustration. The horizon three voice is the voice of the visionary. It talks about dreams and deep aspirations and is usually both humble and inspiring. There are typical ways in which each position ‘hears’ the other voices, as both positive and negative. ‘Convening the future’ effectively means becoming aware of all of these perspectives and working with them to shift the conversation in a generative direction.
Bill Sharpe offers an elegant introduction to Three Horizons in this short film (30 mins) from a workshop for the Luc Hoffmann Institute.
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